Despite rising house prices in Seoul, experts say, “It’s still too early to say the bottom”
The peak of the reverse trend in the second half… The biggest variable in the decline in the jeonse price
“It is only part of the increase in the actual transaction… The prospect of rebalancing in the second half” The prospect of
“rising due to deregulation, falling loan interest rates, and supply shortage”
There are observations that house prices have bottomed out as the actual transaction price has risen, especially in Seoul. This is because concerns about interest rate hikes have decreased and real estate regulations have been eased, leading to transactions centered on urgent sales.
However, experts generally analyzed that the recent rebound in house prices cannot be seen as having hit the bottom. In particular, it predicted that house price adjustments could come once again as jeonse prices are declining and the reverse jeonse crisis expands at the end of this year. The recent rise in house prices is temporary.
Interview with 5 real estate experts/ Graphic = Biz Watch
Unlike last year’s real estate adjuster, experts all agreed that the recent real estate market is in an atmosphere of revival. This is because the competition rate for subscriptions in the metropolitan area is rising recently and the actual transaction price is also rising.
According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the Seoul apartment actual transaction price index has risen one after another over the past three months. It rose 1.1% in January, 1.95% in February, and 1.61% in March. The actual transaction price index is an index that compares the actual transaction price of an apartment with the previous transaction price.
Kim In-man, director of the Real Estate Economic Research Institute, said, “As real estate prices fell significantly last year, buyers were anxious (about a further drop), but as the actual transaction price rose recently, the atmosphere is slowly moving.” there is,” he said.
Kim Je-kyung, director of Tumi Real Estate Consulting, also said, “Recently, consumers seem to judge that ‘the current house price is not certain that it is at the bottom, but the risk has decreased’.” Analyzed.
However, most of the increase in real estate prices was expected to be a temporary phenomenon. The explanation is that it is a’technical rebound’ that occurred due to the large decline in house prices last year.
Director Kim In-man explained, “Real estate prices have risen for the past seven years, but have fallen for only one year.” A dead cat bounce is a term commonly used in the stock market, which refers to a situation in which a stock price drops sharply and then rebounds briefly.
Sumin Yoon NHA real estate expert at Nonghyup Bank also said, “The recent rise in transactions is centered on apartments in some of the core large-scale complexes.”
There was also an opinion that house prices could be readjusted in the second half of this year. It is explained that if the reversal crisis worsens at the end of this year, real estate prices may fall again.
Woo Byeong-tak, head of Shinhan Bank’s WM Business Department, said, “The rental price in the second half of 2021 was at its peak, and the contract concluded at this time was at the end of this year.”
/Photo = Reporter Lee Myeong- geun qwe123 @
It is an observation that we need to watch until the second half of this year to determine the real estate market atmosphere.
Commissioner Soo-min Yoon said, “Recently, as the anxiety 메이저놀이터about interest rates has been partially resolved, it has become more important whether consumers’ purchase sentiment will recover.”
Woo Byeong-tak, team leader, also said, “Concerns about the economic recession still remain, so (the recent rise in real estate prices) can be limited to a temporary rebound.” could be,” he said.
However, some experts predicted that real estate prices would continue to rise.
Go Joon-seok, CEO of JEDU Investment Advisory, said, “As the transaction volume of apartments in Seoul in April was expected to exceed 3,000, it can be seen that the urgent sale has been digested to some extent.”
According to the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza, as of the 17th, the transaction volume of apartments in Seoul last April was 2,800, a significant increase compared to April last year (1,743). In addition, considering that real estate sales contracts are reported within 30 days, the number of April contracts is likely to increase by the end of this month.
CEO Ko Jun-seok said, “Recently, the government has eased real estate regulations and the interest rate on loans is also on the decline.”
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